FOOTBALL PREDICTIONS
Evidence-based predictions for every Premier League, Championship, League One and League Two fixture. Each one comes in a Case File: the forecast, the reasoning and what argues against it.
Inside a Match Intelligence Case File.
Read what the model expects, why it expects it and what weighs against it. Each forecast follows the same order: the answer, the evidence, the contradictions, the limitations and the audit.
tactica. View
Chesterfield Have The Edge, With Both Teams Scoring Favoured
tactica. leans towards Chesterfield, with 29.92 percentage points between the teams’ win chances. The scoring expectations are 1.11 goals for Newport County and 1.79 for Chesterfield, a difference of 0.68 goals. A Chesterfield win is more likely than the other results combined, although Newport County and the draw remain possible.
A counterweight to Chesterfield's attacking record is the evidence from Newport County's shots on target conceded.
The ten-match records are not adjusted for opponent strength. These remain uncertain forecasts and do not assess lineups or tactics.
INSIDE THE CASE FILE
Result Outlook
Newport CountyHome
ChesterfieldAwayChesterfield’s scoring and shooting records lift their goal expectation in this forecast; Newport County’s shots on target conceded temper it.
A Chesterfield win is more likely than the other results combined, although Newport County and the draw remain possible.
Scorelines
Newport CountyHomeChesterfieldAway- 1–110.9%
- 0–19.9%
- 1–29.8%
- 0–28.8%
- 1–06.1%
One Score · One Result
Chesterfield’s win chance combines every score in which they finish ahead; 1–1 is one specific finish. The leading displayed score is not a definitive match prediction.
Goals Outlook
Expected Goals
Newport County1.11Chesterfield1.79Both Teams To Score
Chesterfield’s expected goals are 0.68 higher than Newport County’s.
Both teams scoring is more likely than at least one finishing scoreless (55.8% versus 44.2%). Each side’s scoring expectation contributes to that outlook, but neither is a promise of a goal.
Five sections
Overview, Lineups, Results Intelligence, Goals Intelligence and Corners Intelligence. Each answers its question first, then shows the evidence and what pushes back.
Both teams, side by side
Last five matches and head to head from recorded results, next to the forecast they inform.
Lineups
A predicted XI for each side, then the official XI once it is confirmed. The prediction stays visible.
Revisions on record
Every Case File shows when it was last updated, with its update history one tap away.
HOW A PREDICTION IS BUILT
Recorded matches
Every number traces back to a recorded match: results, goals, shots, possession and more.
Both teams, side by side
Last five matches and head to head from recorded results, next to the forecast they inform.
Expected goals
Each side's scoring expectation, the likely scorelines and whether both teams score.
Revisions on record
When lineups or evidence change, the Case File is updated and every revision is kept.
LEAGUES COVERED
Premier League
20 clubs, every fixture.
Championship
24 clubs, every fixture.
League One
24 clubs, every fixture.
League Two
24 clubs, every fixture.
QUESTIONS
Are tactica. predictions free?
Yes. Match Intelligence Case Files for every fixture are part of the free tier at launch.
Which leagues do you cover?
The Premier League, Championship, League One and League Two.
Is a prediction a guarantee?
No. A Case File shows the likeliest outcomes, the evidence for them and the evidence against. No outcome is guaranteed.
When does tactica. 2.0 launch?
Soon. Join the launch list below and we will email you once when it opens.
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